Gratefully acknowledged is the financial support of this research by
  • U.S. Food and Drug Administration grant 1U01FD006549
  • National Science Foundation grants DMS-1310127, DMS-0907241, and DMS-0403105
  • National Institutes of Health grants R01-AA026368, R01-GM068968, and R01-HL53455
  • National Security Agency grant H98230-11-1-0162
  • Albert & Elaine Borchard Foundation Center on International Education Scholar-in-Residence (2010-2011) and International Colloquium grants (2014, 2017)
  • American Institute of Mathematics (2018)

Research Interests

I am broadly interested in statistics and probability, from the pure to the applied. More specifically, much of my work has been in the following areas.
  • Sequential analysis: hypothesis testing, estimation, and design methods for sequential (e.g., streaming) data; so-called adaptive designs; applications to clinical trial designs and computational biology
  • Multiple hypothesis testing: especially methods for sequential and streaming data
  • Applied probability: Stein's method, optimal allocation problems including the "Bomber Problem"
  • Optimal experimental design: especially geometric and sequential methods, medical applications in dosing and dose-finding
  • Pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics: nonparametric population modeling and Bayesian analysis
  • Visual information processing: learning, detection, and applications in medical imaging

Here's a (curiously shaped) word cloud of some of my recent papers:

My Erdős number is 3, via
  • Yosi Rinott ➙ Michael Saks ➙ Paul Erdős, or
  • Gary Lorden ➙ Robert McEliece ➙ Paul Erdős


cover Sequential Experimentation in Clinical Trials: Design and Analysis, Springer Series in Statistics (2013). (With T. L. Lai and M.-C. Shih)
    • B. Turnbull wrote an informative review in Mathematical Reviews including some historical context for our book PDF

    Peer-Reviewed Publications

    PDF = PDF pre/reprint,   PDF =

    1. Optimal and fast confidence intervals for hypergeometric successes, to appear in The American Statistician (2022). (With G. Lorden and L. Wang) [journal] [R package]

    2. M-estimation in a diffusion model with application to biosensor transdermal blood alcohol monitoring, under review. (With M. Allayioti, L. Goldstein, S. Luczak, and G. Rosen)

    3. An Algorithm for nonparametric estimation of a multivariate mixing distribution with applications to population pharmacokinetics, Pharmaceutics 13 (2021). (With W. Yamada et al.) PDF

    4. Effects of stomach content on the breath alcohol concentration-transdermal alcohol concentration relationship, Drug and Alcohol Review 40 (2021) 1131-1142. (With E. Saldich, C. Wang, I.G. Rosen, and S. Luczak)

    5. Asymptotically optimal sequential FDR and pFDR control with (or without) prior information on the number of signals, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 210 (2021) 87-99. (With X. He) PDF

    6. Sequential tests of multiple hypotheses controlling false discovery and non-discovery rates, Sequential Analysis 39 (2020) 65-91. (With J. Song) PDF

    7. Multiple hypothesis tests controlling generalized error rates for sequential data, Statistica Sinica 28 (2018) 363-398. PDF + supplement

    8. Bounded size biased couplings, log concave distributions and concentration of measure for occupancy models, Bernoulli, 24 (2018) 3283-3317. (With L. Goldstein and Ü. Işlak) PDF

    9. Report of the Committee Studying Home Run Rates in Major League Baseball (2018) 1-84. (With Albert, J., Blandford, R., Brooks, D., Derenski, J., Goldstein, L., Hosoi, A., Lorden, G., Nathan, A., and Smith, L.) [link @; peer-reviewed report commissioned by the Commissioner of Major League Baseball]

    10. The sequential probability ratio test: An efficient alternative to exact binomial testing for Clean Water Act 303(d) evaluation, Journal of Environmental Management 192 (2017) 89-93. (With S. Bay, C. Chen, L. Goldstein, and M. Gribble) PDF

    11. A rejection principle for sequential tests of multiple hypotheses controlling familywise error rates, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 43 (2015) 3-19. (With J. Song) PDF

    12. Stochastic curtailment in adaptive mastery testing: Improving the efficiency of confidence interval based stopping rules, Applied Psychological Measurement 39 (2015) 278-292. (With M. Finkelman, H. Sie, and N. Thompson) PDF + supplement

    13. Sequential tests of multiple hypotheses controlling type I and II familywise error rates, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 153 (2014) 100-114. (With J. Song) PDF

    14. A new approach to designing phase I-II cancer trials for cytotoxic chemotherapies, Statistics in Medicine 33 (2014) 2718-2735. (With T. L. Lai and B. Narasimhan) PDF

    15. A Berry-Esseen bound for the uniform multinomial occupancy model, Electronic Journal of Probability 18 (2013) 1-29. (With L. Goldstein) PDF

    16. Comment on "Group sequential tests for delayed responses," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 75 (2013) 46-47.

    17. Comment on "Change-points: From sequential detection to biology and back," Sequential Analysis 32 (2013) 19-21.

    18. Two general methods for population pharmacokinetic modeling: Non-parametric adaptive grid and non-parametric Bayesian, Journal of Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics 40 (2013) 189-199. (With T. Tatarinova et al.)

    19. A new characterization of Elfving's method for high dimensional computation, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 142 (2012) 863-871. PDF

    20. Nonparametric population modeling and Bayesian analysis, Pharmacological Research 64 (2011) 426. (With R. Jelliffe et al.)

    21. A proof of the Bomber problem's spend-it-all conjecture, Sequential Analysis 30 (2011) 52-57. PDF

    22. Incorporating individual and collective ethics into phase I cancer trial designs, Biometrics 67 (2011) 596-603. (With T. L. Lai) PDF

    23. The Fighter problem: Optimal allocation of a discrete commodity, Advances in Applied Probability 43 (2011) 121-130. (With E. Samuel-Cahn.) PDF

    24. Framework for adaptive multiscale analysis of nonhomogeneous point processes, Proc. IEEE Eng Med Biol Soc. (2011). (With H. Helgason and P. Abry.)

    25. On optimal allocation of a continuous resource using an iterative approach and total positivity, Advances in Applied Probability 42 (2010) 795-815. (With L. Goldstein, Y. Rinott, and E. Samuel-Cahn.) PDF

    26. Approximate dynamic programming and its applications to the design of phase I cancer trials, Statistical Science 25 (2010) 245-257. (With T. L. Lai.) PDF

    27. Multistage tests of multiple hypotheses, Communications in Statistics - Theory & Methods (Special Issue Honoring M. Akahira, M. Aoshima ed.) 39 (2010) 1597-1607. (With T. L. Lai.) PDF

    28. The spend-it-all region and small time results for the continuous Bomber problem, Sequential Analysis 29 (2009) 275-291. (With L. Goldstein and E. Samuel-Cahn.) PDF

    29. Modern sequential analysis and its applications to computerized adaptive testing, Psychometrika 73 (2008) 473-486. (With M. Finkelman and T. L. Lai.) PDF

    30. Generalized likelihood ratio statistics and uncertainty adjustments in adaptive design of clinical trials, Sequential Analysis 27 (2008) 254-276. (With T. L. Lai.) PDF

    31. Efficient adaptive designs with mid-course sample size adjustment in clinical trials, Statistics in Medicine 27 (2008) 1593-1611. (With T. L. Lai.) PDF + supplement

    32. Asymptotically optimal multistage tests of simple hypotheses, Annals of Statistics 35 (2007) 2075-2105. PDF

    33. On "Sequential design and estimation in heteroscedastic nonparametric regression," Sequential Analysis 26 (2007) 49-51.

    34. Efficient three-stage t-tests. In Recent Developments in Nonparametric Inference and Probability: Festschrift for Michael Woodroofe. IMS Lecture Notes-Mongraph Series, 50 (2006). Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Hayward, 105-111. PDF

    35. Optimal multistage sampling in a boundary-crossing problem, Sequential Analysis 25 (2006) 59-84. PDF

    36. Asymptotically optimal multistage hypothesis tests, PhD. thesis, Caltech, 2004.  [link @ Caltech; winner of the W.P. Carey Graduate Dissertation Prize for outstanding doctoral dissertation in pure or applied mathematics at Caltech.]

    37. Automated computer evaluation and optimization of image compression of x-ray coronary angiograms for signal known exactly detection tasks, Optics Express 11 (2003) 460-475. (With M. Eckstein, C. Abbey, J. Whiting, and F. Bochud.) [link]

    38. Model observer based optimization of JPEG image compression, Proc. SPIE Medical Imaging 2000: Image Perception and Performance 3981 (2000) 106-115. (With M. Eckstein and C. Abbey.)

    39. Observer performance for JPEG vs. wavelet image compression of x-ray coronary angiograms, Optics Express 5 (1999) 8-19. (With C. Morioka, M. Eckstein, J. Hausleiter, and J. Whiting.) [link]

    40. Feature stabilized digital x-ray coronary angiograms improve human visual detection in JPEG compressed images, Optics Express 4 (1999) 193-199. (With M. Eckstein, C. Morioka, D. Vodopich, and J. Whiting.) [link]

    41. Effect of image compression in model and human observers, Proc. SPIE Medical Imaging 1999: Image Perception and Performance 3663 (1999) 243-252. (With M. Eckstein, C. Abbey, F. Bochud, and J. Whiting.)

    42. Image compression and feature stabilization of dynamically displayed coronary angiograms, Proc. SPIE Medical Imaging 1999: Image Perception and Performance 3363 (1999) 342-346. (With C. Morioka, J. Whiting, and M. Eckstein.)

    43. Guided search vs. signal detection theory in target localization tasks, Investigative Ophthalmology and Visual Science 40 (1999) 1836. (With M. Eckstein, B. Beutter, and L. Stone.)

    44. Effect of the number of locations in MAFC experiments performed with mammograms, Proc. of the Far West Image Perception Conference, Alberta, Canada (1999). (With F. Bochud, C. Abbey, D. Vodopich, and M. Eckstein).